Moderate Rep. Ed Case defeats progressive challenger in Hawaii primary

Hawaii's Democratic primaries on Saturday offered a counterpoint to the recent pattern of left-leaning insurgents unseating moderate incumbents in safe Democratic districts. In races for governor and two House seats, established candidates prevailed by wide margins, even as one contest was shaped by an unusual arrest of a long-shot challenger.

Rep. Ed Case, first elected to the House in 2002 and again in 2018 after a decade away, defeated state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole in the 1st District, which covers Honolulu and surrounding areas on Oahu. With most votes counted, Case led by nearly 14 points. Keohokalole had attacked Case over his vote to provide military aid to Israel and his support for an earlier version of a Republican-backed voter identification measure. Case has represented the district since 2019 and previously held the neighboring 2nd District seat. He will face Republican Adriel Lam in November in a contest that Cook Political Report rates as strongly Democratic.

The outcome stands apart from recent primary results in New York and Colorado, where progressive candidates have defeated sitting House Democrats this cycle. Case raised more money than his main opponent and benefited from the district's established party networks. Keohokalole, who has served in the state legislature since 2014, positioned himself as a sharper critic of the Trump administration's immigration policies, but that message did not overcome Case's advantages in name recognition and fundraising.

In the 2nd District, which spans the rest of the state outside central Oahu, Rep. Jill Tokuda won renomination against three opponents. One of those challengers had been arrested after a beach altercation captured on video, an episode that drew local attention but did not alter the race's fundamentals. Tokuda, seeking a third term, faces Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa in the fall. The district leans Democratic by roughly 12 points, according to Cook.

Gov. Josh Green also secured the Democratic nomination for a second term. He defeated three little-known opponents, including a self-described democratic socialist who emphasized public grocery stores and marijuana legalization. Green entered the race with a 56 percent approval rating and roughly $3.5 million raised, far ahead of any primary rival. None of his challengers had significant campaign infrastructure or fundraising. He will meet Republican Gary Cordery in November in a race rated as favoring Democrats by 13 points.

Hawaii has not elected a Republican governor since 2010, and its congressional delegation has remained entirely Democratic for years. The primaries underscored how local advantages in organization and resources can blunt national ideological currents, even in a year when progressive activists have targeted moderate officeholders elsewhere. Case's victory, in particular, suggests that voters in some safe Democratic seats continue to prioritize incumbents with long records over challengers focused on sharper departures from party norms.