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Brazilians will vote Sunday in a runoff that could reshape the country’s democratic institutions and its role in global climate efforts. The contest between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, follows a first-round vote in which Flávio edged ahead despite his father’s ongoing house arrest for plotting a 2023 coup.

The elder Bolsonaro faces charges tied to an alleged plan to assassinate Lula, his vice president and a Supreme Court justice. Flávio’s brother Eduardo remains in U.S. exile under a prison sentence for lobbying against Brazilian interests. Andrew Fishman, a Rio-based journalist with The Intercept Brasil, described the family’s position as existential: victory offers the only path to avoiding further legal consequences. “They’re really just willing to do whatever they can to make sure that they win because this is their only get-out-of-jail-free card,” he said.

The campaign has highlighted deep divisions over environmental policy. Jair Bolsonaro’s term saw accelerated Amazon deforestation that pushed the rainforest closer to a tipping point where it could shift from carbon sink to savanna. Lula has pledged renewed enforcement of protections and international cooperation on climate goals, positions that contrast sharply with the Bolsonaro family’s record of weakening oversight.

Voters are also weighing institutional stability after the 2023 events. The failed coup attempt tested Brazil’s military and judicial systems, prompting ongoing investigations into military officers and political allies. Flávio Bolsonaro has framed the legal cases against his family as politically motivated, a message that resonates with supporters who view Lula’s administration as overreaching.

The election carries weight beyond Brazil’s borders. Deforestation rates affect global carbon budgets and biodiversity, while the outcome tests whether a democracy can hold former leaders accountable without fracturing along partisan lines. Fishman characterized the vote as global in scope, noting that Brazilian choices will influence whether the Amazon remains a viable climate buffer.

Polling shows a tight race, with turnout expected to be high in both urban centers and rural areas most affected by land-use changes. Lula’s coalition emphasizes social programs and diplomatic engagement, while Flávio Bolsonaro’s platform stresses security, skepticism of international climate agreements and criticism of judicial actions against his family. Sunday’s results will determine whether those tensions produce continuity or renewed confrontation.