Ceasefire Lapse Puts Hormuz Shipping and Oil at Risk

The Pentagon is weighing options to pull back American troops from the Middle East once the Iran war winds down, according to officials familiar with internal discussions. The review comes as the conflict approaches its six-month mark next week and continues to drain resources that military planners would prefer to keep focused on the Indo-Pacific.

Senior defense officials told The Washington Post that the policy office is examining force posture across the region, including possible withdrawals from the Persian Gulf. U.S. Central Command and the Joint Staff are also assessing the situation, though no formal directive has come from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. A department spokesperson stressed that routine monitoring occurs but insisted no dedicated review is underway.

The war, which began in late February, has already exacted a heavy toll. It has consumed roughly $37.5 billion, destroyed or damaged dozens of aircraft, and left multiple U.S. bases under repeated Iranian attack. President Trump campaigned on ending foreign wars, yet the operation has drawn domestic criticism from some of his own backers who see it as another open-ended commitment.

Navy deployments underscore the broader strain. The USS Abraham Lincoln has now spent more than 250 days at sea, prompting reports of crew distress severe enough that some sailors attempted to jump overboard. The USS George Washington is sailing from its usual Pacific base to relieve the Lincoln, but the swap leaves both carriers unavailable for months of maintenance afterward. Analysts estimate the U.S. could operate without two carrier strike groups in the Indo-Pacific for more than 18 months.

That gap worries those charged with deterring China. Mark Montgomery of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies warned that prolonged Middle East operations send a weak signal to Beijing and leave allies in the Pacific without clear reassurance. Former Pentagon aide Guy Snodgrass echoed the concern, noting that readiness rates could drop sharply in two to three years.

Trump has publicly floated seizing the Strait of Hormuz and labeling it U.S. territory while also threatening strikes against Oman, a major buyer of American weapons. Such statements have done little to shorten the timeline. Both Washington and Tehran appear to believe they can outlast the other, turning what was billed as a swift campaign into a grinding test of endurance.

The United States maintains roughly 20 military sites across the Middle East, eight of them permanent. Any post-war drawdown would affect locations in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, the UAE, and Qatar. Officials have not detailed which positions might close or shrink, but the conversation itself reflects fatigue with a conflict that has already diverted munitions, ships, and attention from the region most defense planners consider the primary long-term challenge.