Iran-Oman Hormuz talks near deal as Trump eyes end to war

President Trump stated Thursday that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as today or tomorrow, citing substantial advances in talks between Iran and Oman. The waterway, which normally carries about 20 percent of global oil shipments, has remained closed amid the ongoing conflict, contributing to elevated energy costs worldwide. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that negotiations were advancing and that the war itself could not continue much longer.

Iranian Foreign Minister Esmaeil Baqaei described the discussions with Oman as positive, noting that the focus remains on establishing mechanisms for managing shipping traffic. Iranian sources indicated that the talks center on practical arrangements rather than broader political concessions at this stage. Both nations have reportedly agreed on coordinates for future shipping routes, though disagreements persist over control of the strait.

The closure has disrupted commercial flows and kept gasoline prices higher than they would otherwise be. Trump has linked any resolution to eventual declines in fuel costs, emphasizing the economic pressures that arise when key trade routes are blocked. Analysts note that restoring open passage would allow market forces to operate more freely, reducing artificial constraints on supply.

Defense officials have confirmed that the United States has expended nearly its entire global stockpile of long-range precision missiles during operations against Iran. This depletion raises questions about the sustainability of extended military engagements without corresponding gains in strategic objectives. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has downplayed concerns over inventory levels, but the figures underscore the material costs of sustained conflict.

Iran has signaled that it will not accept a return to the pre-war status of an unrestricted international waterway. Tehran has floated proposals that would grant it a role in oversight and potentially allow fees for transit, positions that conflict with American insistence on neutral access. An Iranian parliamentary committee is reviewing legislation that would restrict passage by U.S., Israeli, and other designated hostile vessels.

Reaching an agreement may require adjustments on both sides. Observers point out that any arrangement granting Iran lasting influence over the strait would represent a shift from previous U.S. positions. Such a compromise could carry implications for global trade patterns and the balance of power in the region, even as it offers a path to lower energy prices and reduced military strain.

Trump has described the negotiations as productive while noting that Iran continues to deny direct talks with the United States. The administration canceled a planned large-scale strike last week after indications that regional actors sought a diplomatic opening. Broader peace discussions remain dependent on resolving the immediate issues surrounding the strait.

The economic effects of the closure extend beyond immediate fuel costs. Industries reliant on stable energy supplies face higher operating expenses, and these burdens ultimately pass to consumers. Historical patterns show that government-directed restrictions on trade routes tend to generate inefficiencies that markets would otherwise correct through price signals and alternative sourcing.

Officials from both the current and prior administrations have acknowledged the pressure to conclude the matter before midterm elections, when elevated prices could influence voter sentiment. Whether the final terms preserve sufficient freedom of navigation or tilt toward greater Iranian authority will determine the long-term consequences for international commerce.