Iran-Oman Hormuz talks near deal as Trump eyes end to war

President Trump said Thursday that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within a day or two, citing progress in indirect talks between Iran and Oman that have focused on shipping routes and management arrangements. The waterway, which normally carries about one-fifth of global oil supplies, has remained effectively closed since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, contributing to sharp rises in energy prices worldwide.

Trump, speaking to reporters, described the negotiations as advancing and predicted an announcement soon. He also stated that the broader war cannot continue much longer, though Iranian officials have continued to deny any direct contacts with Washington and insist they are negotiating solely with Oman over control of the strait. Iranian Foreign Minister Esmaeil Baqaei told state media that the discussions have produced positive results and that Tehran is working to establish mechanisms for future shipping management in cooperation with Muscat.

The core disagreement centers on whether Iran will retain any formal or practical authority over transit. Tehran has signaled it will not accept a return to the pre-war status of an open international waterway and has floated ideas such as coordinated traffic rules or fees. A bill under review in Iran’s parliament would bar vessels from the United States, Israel and other designated hostile states. U.S. officials have ruled out any arrangement that appears to grant Iran permanent leverage over the passage.

The military context adds pressure on both sides. Two people with direct knowledge of U.S. munitions told CBS News that nearly all global stocks of long-range precision missiles have been expended in the campaign against Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has previously downplayed concerns about shortages, but the depletion limits Washington’s ability to sustain or escalate operations without replenishment that could take years. At the same time, Iran retains the capacity to threaten commercial shipping with drones and missiles, giving it continued leverage even after extensive U.S. strikes.

Analysts note that any reopening will require compromises that test the Trump administration’s stated aversion to concessions. Former State Department officials have pointed out that the president has historically framed international outcomes in zero-sum terms, making it politically uncomfortable to accept limits on freedom of navigation that could be portrayed as Iranian gains. Economic strain, however, is mounting. Elevated gasoline prices are already registering with voters ahead of the midterms, and prolonged closure risks deeper damage to global supply chains.

Oman’s role as intermediary reflects its longstanding position as a reliable channel between Tehran and Western capitals. The two sides have reportedly agreed on coordinates for designated shipping lanes, narrowing the remaining differences to questions of oversight and enforcement. If those issues are settled, the path could open for broader talks aimed at de-escalation, though Iranian denials of direct U.S. engagement suggest any larger diplomatic process would still require careful sequencing.

The situation illustrates the familiar tension between military objectives and material constraints. Even a limited deal to restore oil flows would carry lasting implications for how the Persian Gulf is governed and for the credibility of U.S. commitments to open sea lanes. Whether the current momentum produces an agreement this week or stalls over final details will depend on how both capitals weigh the costs of continued disruption against the political price of compromise.