Paxton recording links GOP convention to polling drop in Senate race

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton faces a narrow path to the U.S. Senate in a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide in more than three decades. A leaked audio recording now places him privately acknowledging that the Republican midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month coincided with a decline in his campaign’s standing.

The recording, obtained by the New York Times and made at a private Washington fundraiser attended by roughly a dozen people last week, captures Paxton responding to a question about whether President Trump had become a drag on the ticket. “To be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped,” Paxton said. “Right now, yeah, not good.” The attendee who recorded the exchange opposes Paxton’s campaign and was granted anonymity; two other attendees corroborated the conversation.

Paxton is the Republican nominee for the open Senate seat. RealClearPolitics polling average shows him trailing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico by 2.9 percentage points. The race has drawn heavy spending from both parties.

Paxton campaign adviser Nick Maddux rejected the account. “Our latest poll from the last week has Ken Paxton leading by three points, and every serious pollster will tell you that our numbers have improved since early September,” Maddux said. He described the report as “more manipulated nonsense from The New York Times to create a story that doesn’t exist” and said Paxton looks forward to campaigning with Trump during an upcoming appearance at a Peterbilt Motors facility in Denton.

The convention featured lengthy speeches by Trump on both days. No independent polling data released since the event has been cited by either campaign to confirm or refute the drop Paxton described in the recording.