Tight Midterm Races Test Party Control With 43 Days Left

Control of Congress hangs in the balance 43 days before the 2026 midterms, with Democrats holding a narrow polling edge on the generic ballot while Republicans retain structural advantages in the Senate map and recent outside spending. Voters in key states cite the economy, inflation, and immigration as top concerns, according to a Mason-Dixon poll for NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo that placed Democrat James Talarico at 46 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 43 percent in Texas, within the margin of error. The same survey showed Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa 48 percent to 41 percent. Republican super PACs tied to President Trump have reserved more than $130 million in advertising since early September, including $15 million from MAGA Inc. in Texas alone, according to AdImpact tracking reported by the Washington Post. America PAC, backed by Elon Musk, has spent nearly $5.2 million on digital and mail efforts in Texas and other states, following a lower-profile approach than its 2025 Wisconsin spending that exceeded $20 million. Democrats have countered with early reservations but now face Republican outspending in most major Senate contests outside Georgia, where the gap favors Republicans by roughly $25 million to $1 million in the coming week. In New York’s 17th District, Republican Rep. Mike Lawler has attacked Democratic challenger Cait Conley as a carpetbagger aligned with Gov. Kathy Hochul and other state Democrats, citing her positions on sanctuary policies and a public insurance option; Conley’s campaign described Lawler as a career operative who votes with Trump 100 percent of the time. California Republican Rep. Young Kim introduced the Stop Congressional Self-Enrichment Resolution to extend earmark disclosure rules to immediate family members and indirect benefits such as property-value increases near family-owned land, following a July House vote restricting lawmakers’ stock trades. Some Republican Senate nominees, including Georgia’s Mike Collins and Michigan’s Mike Rogers, continue to reference 2020 election disputes in primary contexts, though a New York Times-Siena poll found only 1 percent of voters rank election integrity as their top issue. A POLITICO/Public First survey of more than 4,000 adults found voters across parties penalize candidates over age 70 by nearly 10 percentage points relative to those under 50 and favor Christian identifiers among Republicans, while showing no overall penalty for race or gender outside gender-identity questions. Republican strategists interviewed by NBC News expressed preference for Musk to maintain a low profile in Texas to avoid repeating Wisconsin dynamics. The Cook Political Report rates 21 House seats as tossups, 16 of them currently Republican-held, while Democrats have added $10 million to defend a competitive Michigan Senate seat. Trump has stated he will spend whatever amount necessary from a roughly $1 billion war chest, with additional funds routed through newly formed groups No Going Back PAC and Safety & Affordability PAC that share addresses with MAGA Inc.