Independents Test Voter Appetite for Middle Ground in 2026 Midterms

Voters confronting sharply higher home insurance premiums and other living costs now confront a separate choice: whether nearly 200 independent congressional candidates can convert widespread frustration with both parties into actual seats. Premiums have risen 46 percent since 2021, nearly triple the rate of general inflation, according to data cited across multiple states. In Kansas, annual premiums for a $300,000 home with a $1,000 deductible average $5,289, 84 percent above the national figure, pushing some homeowners to drop coverage entirely.

Independent candidates argue that record numbers of self-identified independents—45 percent of adults—create an opening for candidates who reject both party extremes. Seth Haskin in Florida’s Republican-leaning district campaigns in 18th-century attire while calling himself a strict constitutionalist who sees both parties captured by industry money. Sarah Zabel, a retired Air Force major general running in Idaho’s solidly Republican district, describes herself as a heritage Republican who left the party after 2018 and now positions herself as a centrist alternative. In Alaska’s at-large House race, commercial fisherman Bill Hill competes against the Republican incumbent and a Democratic nominee under the state’s ranked-choice system.

The Cook Political Report rates most of these districts as safe for one party, yet independents say even double-digit vote shares could pressure the two-party system. In swing districts such as Iowa’s First, businessman Michael Bridgford contends that voters tired of dysfunction will reward candidates who promise to solve problems without party leadership constraints. Meanwhile, affordability ballot measures and insurance-commissioner races in Kansas, Florida, and North Carolina have elevated housing costs as a voting issue, with polls showing 58 percent of Americans more likely to vote because of rising premiums.

One independent candidate in Colorado entered the race after a Democratic primary upset produced a nominee he viewed as too far left. Another in Alaska’s Senate contest benefits from the state’s history of splitting tickets despite its Republican presidential voting record since 1968. No independent currently serves in the House except Kevin Kiley of California, who switched from Republican and continues to caucus with that party. Fundraising gaps and limited debate access remain the chief structural barriers cited by the candidates themselves.