Trump Super PAC Spends $10M in Tight Texas Senate Race

Two months before voters decide control of Congress, the 2026 midterms are unfolding along lines that have defined recent cycles. Republicans hold narrow majorities in both chambers after 2024, but historical patterns and current conditions point to structural pressure on the party in power. Presidents typically see their party lose seats in the first midterm, and the factors that usually drive those losses remain in place.

Public surveys show President Trump’s approval rating near record lows for this point in a term. Inflation, while lower than peaks under the prior administration, continues to weigh on household finances. These conditions match the environment that produced Republican gains in 2022, yet that year’s results were more modest than expected. Democrats retained the Senate and limited House losses. Analysts at Brookings and elsewhere note that the “out party” tends to mobilize more effectively in these elections, turning dissatisfaction into turnout.

Republican leaders have responded by trying to separate individual races from the national environment. Some candidates avoid joint appearances with Trump even as his super PAC commits substantial resources to targeted contests. In Texas, the group has directed $10 million toward Attorney General Ken Paxton’s Senate bid against Democratic state Representative James Talarico. The race remains close in polling, and the spending reflects an effort to shore up a seat that could affect Senate margins.

Democrats have focused on their own resource advantages in competitive districts. Fundraising events on Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard this summer drew House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and other candidates, adding to combined cash reserves that the Democratic committees reported at roughly $136 million as of June. Republicans held more cash overall, but the distribution across battlegrounds matters more than aggregate totals.

Control of the House is especially fluid. An unusually large number of Republican retirements has created open seats rated as toss-ups by nonpartisan analysts. Districts in Arizona, Michigan and Iowa now feature new matchups where incumbency advantages have disappeared. Democrats need only a handful of flips to take the majority, while Republicans must defend terrain that shifted after recent redistricting and candidate departures.

Voting rules add another layer. Trump has pursued tighter restrictions on mail ballots in several states, arguing that such methods invite fraud. Courts have slowed those efforts, and election officials in Wisconsin and North Carolina have begun mailing ballots under existing procedures. Nearly a third of voters used mail ballots in 2024, and abrupt changes risk logistical problems that could affect participation unevenly.

Secretaries of state races in 26 states will determine who oversees election administration ahead of 2028. These offices gained visibility after 2020, when disputes over certification procedures drew sustained attention. Voters in those contests will effectively choose the officials responsible for implementing whatever rules survive ongoing litigation.

The combination of low presidential approval, economic discontent and open seats has produced a narrow path for Republicans to hold both chambers. Historical data shows that midterm losses for the president’s party average around two dozen House seats and several Senate seats when approval sits below 45 percent. Current polling and structural conditions track those precedents more closely than the narrower results of 2022.