Polls Show Democrats With 12-Point Midterm Edge as Trump Approval Slips

Voters express growing dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s job performance, producing a double-digit advantage for Democratic congressional candidates in the latest surveys and prompting some Republican contenders to distance themselves from White House positions. The shift raises the possibility that control of Congress could change hands in the 2026 midterms.

A Reuters poll placed Trump’s overall approval at 32 percent, his lowest mark in that series across both terms, while an NPR/PBS News/Marist survey recorded 39 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval. On the generic ballot the Marist poll showed Democrats ahead 53 percent to 41 percent, a 12-point margin that represents a 13-point swing from Trump’s 2024 popular-vote performance. The same survey found 45 percent of registered voters intend their congressional vote as a vote against Trump, including roughly half of independents.

Republican operatives cited by Politico and Punchbowl News described races in North Carolina and Georgia as slipping and reported that candidates in Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin have reversed earlier support for the Iran conflict or called for ending it outright. Several have also endorsed a gas-tax holiday after previously opposing the measure. These moves coincide with record diesel prices in some states and an enthusiasm gap in which Trump’s 2024 voters report lower midterm interest than Harris voters.

The Marist poll, conducted September 14-15 among 1,280 respondents with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 points, also showed Democrats holding narrow leads on immigration, the economy, foreign policy, and gas prices. No comparable data from other pollsters appeared in the reviewed coverage to confirm or contradict the topline figures.