Trump Midterm Travel Highlights GOP Risks on Prices and Polls

CNN data analyst Harry Enten laid out fresh numbers this week showing Democrats with a 67 percent chance of taking both the House and Senate in next year's midterms. That is up sharply from 52 percent just two months ago. Enten pointed to Democratic strength in states like Iowa, Alaska, Kansas and Michigan and noted that Republican candidates are lagging in key races. Texas Senate hopeful Ken Paxton sits at a net negative 16 points in popularity, one example among several that Enten said point to a possible wave election.

The forecast lines up with what President Trump's own schedule reveals about Republican vulnerabilities. Trump has been crisscrossing the country for rallies and fundraisers, yet aides say he is steering clear of states where his presence could hurt GOP candidates. No trips are planned for Maine, where Senator Susan Collins faces a tight race, or New Hampshire. Instead the president has stuck to deep-red Nebraska, Texas for the second time in a week, upstate New York to back a friend trailing badly in the polls, and Tennessee near a military base. One adviser noted that Trump prefers college football games to campaign stops when the weather cooperates, and a recent Alabama visit was canceled because of storms.

The travel choices come as the White House tries to convince voters it is focused on rising living costs. Last week the administration announced a deal to import millions of tons of diesel fuel from Russia, a move framed as relief at the pump. Yet Enten highlighted Trump's underwater approval ratings on inflation, the broader economy, trade and tariffs, and immigration. Those figures, he said, are the kind that historically produce big Democratic gains. If current trends hold, Enten projects Democrats ending up with 54 Senate seats to 46 for Republicans.

Trump's team insists the president remains the party's best draw with his core supporters. Still, the pattern of visits shows a clear calculation: go where enthusiasm runs high and avoid places where low personal ratings make the candidate a liability. The diesel import agreement itself underscores the difficulty. While it may ease short-term supply pressures, it also draws attention to the fact that energy costs remain a central voter concern heading into the election year.

Enten described the polling environment as unusually favorable for Democrats at this stage. He tied the shift directly to Trump's standing with independents and suburban voters on pocketbook issues. Republican strategists privately acknowledge the same headwinds, noting that even in safe states the president's involvement can energize opposition turnout. The result is a midterm map that looks increasingly difficult for the party in power, with limited room to maneuver before voters head to the polls.