Trump Midterm Travel Highlights GOP Risks on Prices and Polls

CNN data analyst Harry Enten has laid out polling that gives Democrats a 67 percent chance of capturing both the House and Senate in the 2026 midterms. That figure has climbed sharply from 52 percent just two months earlier. Enten pointed to Democratic strength in states such as Iowa, Alaska, Kansas and Michigan, where Republican candidates are showing clear weaknesses with voters. Texas Senate hopeful Ken Paxton carries a net approval rating of minus 16 points, one of several GOP figures dragged down by association with the president.

Trump's own numbers on key issues remain deeply negative. His net approval sits underwater on immigration, trade and tariffs, Iran policy, the economy and inflation. Enten called these ratings atrocious and the sort that historically produce Democratic waves. If current trends hold, Enten forecasts Democrats finishing with 54 Senate seats to Republicans' 46.

The president's recent campaign travel underscores the challenge. Trump has focused stops on deep-red areas like Nebraska and Tennessee while skipping competitive races in Maine and New Hampshire where his presence is viewed as a liability. Advisers note he signs off personally on each week's itinerary, balancing political needs with an 80-year-old's limits and preferences for events like college football games over standard rallies. Last week he appeared in Texas for the second time in seven days and brought former boxer Mike Tyson onstage during a New York stop, moves that highlight an effort to energize core supporters rather than broaden appeal.

At the same time, the administration's decision to import millions of tons of diesel fuel from Russia has drawn fresh scrutiny over whether Trump is addressing the cost-of-living pressures voters say matter most. The move comes as the president struggles to convince the public his agenda prioritizes everyday economic concerns ahead of the midterms.

Taken together, the polling surge, candidate vulnerabilities and selective campaign map paint a picture of a Republican Party on the defensive. Enten's analysis suggests the current environment could produce the kind of broad Democratic gains that flip Senate control and expand the House majority, driven by voter dissatisfaction with the president's record rather than any single issue.