Trump Rallies Push Economy Message as Prices Rise Ahead of Midterms

Control of Congress rests on whether voters prioritize pocketbook pressures or party loyalty three weeks before the November midterms. President Trump held rallies in Arizona and Montana this week, urging supporters to treat the contests as a referendum on his agenda while Democrats counter that Republican candidates should answer for the same record.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported consumer prices rose 3.7 percent over the past year, with food costs up 2.5 percent. Energy prices have climbed further since U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict began, pushing average gasoline more than $1.20 higher per gallon than a year earlier in many markets. Trump told crowds the economy showed little inflation, cited stock gains and new investment, and predicted fuel costs would fall once the Iran situation resolved. He asked audiences to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”

Interviews with Trump voters in Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Maine and Montana produced divided reactions. Some described coupon use and skipped trips to stretch budgets; others said short-term costs would yield long-term security gains or that cultural issues outweighed prices. A Harris Poll conducted for The Guardian found 65 percent of independents now say the economy is worse, up from 48 percent in September 2024. An AP-NORC survey showed roughly eight in ten voters naming the economy or cost of living among their top issues.

Democratic candidates in swing races have run ads and events linking grocery and fuel costs directly to administration decisions. Republican outside groups, led by the president’s super PAC, hold a reported $1 billion cash advantage over comparable Democratic committees, according to Associated Press and Washington Post tallies. That edge has allowed heavier advertising in states including Ohio and Texas even as some Republican candidates distance themselves from the president on the trail.

Focus groups of 2020 Biden and 2024 Trump voters in Georgia showed ten of twelve expressing regret over their earlier choice, with seven saying Trump would influence them to back Democrats this fall. National polling on whether those sentiments will decide House and Senate control remains limited. Both parties have made Trump the central figure in their closing arguments.