US-Iran Ceasefire Frays Over Hormuz and Assassination Warnings

The June 17 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, which established a 60-day window for talks and a ceasefire, faces renewed strain after exchanges of strikes this week. Commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply, sending oil prices higher, while Israel passed fresh intelligence to Washington about an Iranian plan targeting President Donald Trump. Mediation efforts continue in Doha even as both governments accuse each other of violating the agreement.

The sequence began when Iranian forces struck vessels that did not follow routes approved by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The United States responded with strikes on 85 targets, then 90 more after Iranian retaliation against U.S. assets in Gulf states. Trump stated at the NATO summit in Ankara that the memorandum was “over” and called Iranian leaders “scum,” yet later indicated negotiators could keep talking. Iranian state media reported explosions in southern provinces on Friday; Washington denied involvement. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was buried in Mashhad the same day after funeral processions.

Paragraph 5 of the memorandum requires Iran to arrange safe passage for 60 days at no charge and to hold talks with Oman on future administration of the strait. U.S. officials say Iran violated that clause by firing on non-compliant ships. Iranian officials say the United States violated the ceasefire clause by resuming strikes and by not halting Israeli operations in Lebanon. Tanker traffic has shifted toward the southern route along Oman’s coast, and Gulf producers have increased use of pipelines that bypass the strait entirely. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects global crude production will return near pre-conflict levels by year-end.

Israeli intelligence shared this week described a specific plot against Trump, according to CNN and The Wall Street Journal. U.S. officials have tracked Iranian threats since the 2020 strike that killed Qasem Soleimani, including prior FBI investigations that led to arrests. Some U.S. assessments described the latest warning as more general than operational. Trump referenced the threat repeatedly during the summit and on Air Force One, where he flew in an older aircraft with stronger defensive systems while the newer plane proceeded ahead.

Technical talks between the sides remain scheduled to resume after the funeral period. Iran has filed a complaint with the UN Security Council and stated it will not negotiate while attacks continue. The United States maintains that negotiators are still committed to the process. No final agreement on sanctions relief, the nuclear program, or long-term Hormuz administration has been reached.