Trump Eyes Hormuz Deal via Oman as Missile Stocks Near Depletion

The US military has nearly exhausted its stockpile of long-range precision missiles after five months of conflict with Iran, according to multiple officials familiar with internal assessments. The drawdown centers on Army Tactical Missile Systems and the newer Precision Strike Missiles, both of which carry price tags exceeding one million dollars per round and enable strikes from beyond enemy air defenses.

These weapons formed a central part of operations since the fighting began in late February. Their near-total consumption leaves fewer options for sustained pressure without shifting to crewed aircraft, which carry higher risks to personnel and equipment. Officials note that similar munitions have also supported Ukrainian forces against Russian targets, underscoring their role across multiple theaters.

Analysts have long flagged the importance of these systems in any future confrontation with China over Taiwan or the South China Sea. The current shortfall comes as President Trump weighs renewed strikes against diplomatic steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran closed the waterway early in the conflict, disrupting roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments and pushing energy prices higher.

Negotiations involving Iran, Oman, and indirect US input have advanced in recent days. Reports indicate a possible 60-day interim arrangement that would route inbound traffic through Iranian waters and outbound traffic through Omani lanes, with mine clearance to begin within 30 days. No tolls would apply during this period, though longer-term fees remain under discussion. Trump stated on Tuesday that an agreement could be reached within 48 hours and described the talks as productive, while repeating that failure would trigger a major military response.

Markets reacted to the prospect of resumed shipping. Oil prices eased in Asian trading, and major stock indexes posted gains after earlier record closes on Wall Street. Central Command has maintained that the southern route through Omani waters remains open for commercial traffic, though full restoration of normal volumes awaits a broader settlement.

The missile shortage illustrates the material limits of prolonged engagement. Each system requires extended production lead times, and replenishment competes with other defense priorities. Historical patterns show that extended operations often reveal gaps between planned inventories and actual consumption rates. Policymakers now face choices between accelerating production, accepting reduced deterrence margins elsewhere, or pursuing negotiated outcomes that restore access to critical sea lanes without additional expenditures.

Trump has alternated warnings of large-scale attacks with pauses to allow talks, a pattern that has extended the conflict beyond initial expectations of a short campaign. Iranian officials have denied direct US involvement in some Strait discussions while confirming progress with Oman on traffic management. Any final deal would need to address both shipping security and broader nuclear issues if the administration is to claim achievement of its stated objectives.

The episode highlights the trade-offs inherent in committing precision munitions at high volume. Stockpile levels directly affect the ability to respond to simultaneous challenges from peer competitors, a consideration that predates the current fighting but has become more acute.