Trump Eyes Hormuz Deal via Oman as Missile Stocks Near Depletion

The United States has depleted nearly its entire stockpile of long-range precision missiles after five months of conflict with Iran, according to three people familiar with internal assessments. The shortfall centers on Army Tactical Missile Systems and the newer Precision Strike Missiles, both of which exceed $1 million per round and enable strikes from beyond enemy air defenses.

This depletion directly constrains President Donald Trump’s choices if negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz stall. Officials have described the weapons as central to maintaining pressure without exposing aircraft, yet their near-exhaustion leaves the military more reliant on manned bombing runs that carry higher risks to personnel and equipment. The same systems have been used extensively in support of Ukraine, underscoring how simultaneous demands on limited munitions can erode readiness for contingencies involving China or Russia.

Talks between Iran and Oman have produced a tentative framework for a 60-day interim arrangement that would route inbound traffic through Iranian waters and outbound traffic through Omani waters. No tolls would apply during the initial period, and mine-clearing operations in the median lane would begin within 30 days. Trump has signaled that an announcement could come within 48 hours, while also warning that any collapse in talks would trigger a major strike. Iranian officials have framed the discussions as bilateral and have resisted direct US involvement in the final text.

The war began on February 28 with joint US and Israeli operations aimed at degrading Iran’s nuclear program and ability to project force. Initial expectations of a short campaign gave way to prolonged exchanges that have killed thousands and displaced millions. Throughout, Trump has alternated between public threats of large-scale attacks and pauses to allow diplomacy, a pattern that has produced repeated delays without a decisive breakthrough on core US objectives.

Analysts note that the missile shortage adds urgency to reaching an accommodation on the strait, which normally carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Markets responded to signs of progress with lower oil prices and higher equity indexes. Yet the underlying constraint on precision munitions remains, and defense officials have offered limited public detail on replenishment timelines or alternative strike packages.

The situation illustrates how extended operations can outpace industrial production rates for high-end munitions, a structural vulnerability that predates the current conflict but has become more acute. With negotiations still fluid, the administration faces a narrow window to translate diplomatic movement into a durable pause before further military commitments become necessary.