Ceasefire Expires as Hormuz Talks Stall and POW Dispute Flares

Global oil markets face renewed pressure after the 60-day U.S.-Iran negotiating window closed Monday without an agreement, leaving the Strait of Hormuz under contested control and shipping traffic at a near standstill. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil normally passes through the waterway; data compiled by Kpler and reviewed by Reuters showed only five cargo ships transited on Saturday and none on Sunday, compared with an average of 31 the prior weekend and 130 before the February 28 outbreak of hostilities.

Iranian Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said an understanding had been reached with Oman on a transit-route map that would send ships inbound near Iranian waters and outbound near Omani waters without interim fees. The two sides are drafting a joint statement, Baghaei told reporters in Tehran. U.S. officials have indicated any such arrangement must still satisfy Washington’s conditions before the blockade of Iranian ports is lifted. President Trump told Fox News that informal contacts continue with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard but added he is “not in a hurry.” He also warned that if Oman interferes, “we’ll bomb the s--- out of them.”

Separately, Iran accused Qatar of holding three pilots shot down over Qatari airspace on March 2 during an Iranian strike on Al Udeid Air Base. Maj. Gen. Ali Abdullahi, chief of staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, said Qatar had “exhausted its opportunity to delay” and demanded immediate release. Brig. Gen. Mohammad Bagherzadeh, head of the missing-personnel committee, wrote to the International Red Cross citing Articles 70 and 78 of the Third Geneva Convention. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari replied that search teams found only the remains of one pilot, which were returned, and that Iran has not responded to an April invitation to review the operations.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi stated there is “not anything like a ceasefire” and that Qatar and Pakistan are merely passing messages. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi posted that the strait “will remain Iranian” and will open or close only under Iranian command. Trump reiterated on Truth Social that preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon remains the primary U.S. objective. No extension of the expired negotiating period has been announced.