Ceasefire Expires as Hormuz Talks Stall and POW Dispute Flares

Iran announced Monday that it has reached an understanding with Oman on managing ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and is close to finalizing a joint statement on the plan. The development comes as the 60-day period for negotiations between Washington and Tehran expires with no extension announced and no breakthrough in sight. Iranian Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters in Tehran that an agreement on the transit route map had been reached, though details remain limited. Reports indicate the arrangement would allow ships to pass without fees during an interim period, with inbound routes near Iran and outbound routes near Oman.

The strait, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade once flowed, has been effectively closed since the outbreak of hostilities. Shipping data showed only five cargo vessels passed through on Saturday, with none recorded on Sunday. The United States has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports and demanded a reopening that meets its standards before easing restrictions. It remains unclear whether the Iran-Oman framework satisfies those conditions.

US President Donald Trump, speaking to Fox News, warned that Washington would take military action against Oman if the Gulf nation interferes. "If Oman gets in the way, we'll bomb the s--- out of them," he said. Trump also stated that informal contacts with Iran's Revolutionary Guard are ongoing but emphasized he is not under pressure to reach an agreement quickly. "They're good poker players, but they're dying," he added. "I have no time schedule. I'm not in a hurry." In a separate Truth Social post, Trump reiterated that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains the top priority.

The comments follow weeks of stalled direct talks. Both sides appear as divided as they were when the negotiating window opened two months earlier. Iran has consistently denied formal bilateral negotiations with the United States while pursuing separate channels with Oman.

Tensions have also risen on another front. Iran accused Qatar on Sunday of holding three Iranian pilots in violation of the Geneva Conventions. The pilots were part of a group of four shot down over Qatari airspace in March during Iranian strikes on Al Udeid Air Base. Iran says one pilot died in the incident and claims the remaining three have been denied contact with families or Iranian authorities for six months. Maj. Gen. Ali Abdullahi demanded their immediate release, and Brig. Gen. Mohammad Bagherzadeh sent a letter to the International Red Cross urging intervention. Qatar has stated it launched a search after the incident but has not confirmed holding the pilots.

The combination of the expiring ceasefire period, the Hormuz transit talks, and the prisoner dispute has left the region on edge. Shipping companies have already adjusted routes amid the uncertainty, contributing to volatility in energy markets ahead of US midterm elections. Observers note that Trump's public threats toward Oman, a long-standing US partner, add another layer of complication to efforts at de-escalation. Iranian officials have framed their outreach to Oman as a practical step toward restoring commercial access to the waterway without external preconditions.

With the 60-day window now closed and no clear path forward, attention has turned to whether third-party arrangements like the one with Oman can prevent a return to open conflict. The coming days are expected to reveal whether the tentative understanding between Tehran and Muscat advances or whether broader US demands on nuclear issues and port access continue to block progress.