Trump Says Iran Deal Near as Ceasefire Holds After Weekend Strikes

Global oil markets and nuclear proliferation risks hinge on whether a fragile truce between Israel and Iran can survive competing demands from Washington, Tehran, and Jerusalem. President Donald Trump stated on June 9 that negotiators are in the final stages of an agreement that would bar Iran from nuclear weapons and reopen the Strait of Hormuz within days of signing. Oil prices fell modestly on the comments, with Brent crude down 1.3 percent.

The ceasefire, in place since April 8, frayed over the weekend when Iran fired missiles at northern Israel after accusing Israel of violating the truce with strikes in Lebanon. Israel responded with what it described as a large-scale attack on Iranian defense systems. Iran later announced it had halted further strikes on Israel but warned through its Foreign Ministry that attacks would resume if Israeli operations in Lebanon continued. Israel separately struck the Mahshahr petrochemical complex in southwestern Iran on June 8; Iranian media reported no casualties.

Trump told reporters he had warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stand down from additional strikes, saying Netanyahu could find himself “on your own very soon.” Axios reported that Netanyahu canceled a planned major wave of strikes on Iran following that call. Trump also described the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports as more effective than bombing and said any deal would be signed in two or three days if no sticking points emerged. He has made similar timeline predictions more than three dozen times since the conflict began.

Iranian parliamentary officials rejected the notion of rapid progress. Ebrahim Azizi, head of the national security committee, told CNN there was no serious will to reach an implementable framework and that nuclear issues were not currently under discussion. Hezbollah reported 16 operations against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon on June 8 using drones and missiles. A U.S. Army AH-64 Apache helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz on June 8; both crew members were rescued unharmed, according to U.S. Central Command.

Analysts note that any final agreement would need to address Iranian demands linking the U.S. talks to Lebanon and the release of frozen assets, while Israel insists operations against Hezbollah remain separate. The blockade has now lasted 56 days without the storage-capacity crisis some analysts had forecast.