Iran Seizes Ships in Hormuz as US Blockade Chokes Trade Despite Ceasefire

President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he would extend the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, citing Tehran’s “seriously fractured” government and its failure to produce a “unified proposal” acceptable to Washington. The decision came hours after Iranian forces seized two foreign container ships in the Strait of Hormuz and fired on a third, the latest escalation in a naval standoff that has now outlasted the initial air and missile campaign.

The move underscores a war that began with American and Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and degraded much of Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure. Trump entered the conflict with a vague aspiration for regime change but without a clearly articulated endgame. Eight weeks later, the fighting has shifted from kinetic strikes to economic and maritime pressure, with both sides accusing the other of violating the ceasefire. Iran has declared it “impossible” to reopen the strait while the United States maintains its naval blockade of Iranian ports, which began April 13.

The economic consequences are already rippling outward. The strait normally carries about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Its effective closure has driven up energy prices worldwide, including a roughly 30 percent increase at American gas pumps. That spike has contributed to a sharp decline in Trump’s approval ratings, already among the lowest of his political career. Iran, meanwhile, is losing an estimated $450 to $500 million per day in oil revenue, according to American officials. Its currency has collapsed, inflation is running in triple digits, and reports suggest military and police units are going unpaid.

Yet Iranian parliamentary speaker and lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf insisted late Tuesday that his country can endure the pressure longer than the United States can sustain political pain at home. That assessment appears to rest on a reading of Trump’s own public signals. The president has posted repeatedly on Truth Social about Iran “collapsing financially” and “starving for cash,” while simultaneously voicing frustration that the conflict is distracting from other priorities. New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman, who has covered Trump for years, told CNN on Wednesday that the president “would like to just be done with this.” But, she added, “wars are intractable.”

The naval tit-for-tat continues even under the nominal ceasefire. On Monday, U.S. forces captured an Iranian-flagged container ship, prompting Tehran to accuse Washington of “piracy.” American forces have since intercepted multiple Iranian tankers in Asian waters. Iran has responded in kind. The White House has framed the blockade as “Operation Economic Fury,” arguing it holds all the leverage while kinetic strikes remain paused. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt described Trump’s relaxed public posture as strategic, telling Fox News that the president is under “no time pressure” and that media coverage is overblown.

Yet the costs to American military readiness are becoming clearer. A new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that U.S. forces expended more than half their prewar inventory of Patriot missile interceptors during the 39-day air campaign, along with more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles and over 1,000 JASSM standoff weapons. Significant quantities of THAAD, SM-3, and SM-6 interceptors were also used. Rebuilding those stocks could take years, analysts warn, leaving the Pentagon less prepared for potential conflict with a peer competitor such as China. The strain highlights how even a limited war can rapidly consume high-end munitions that cannot be quickly replaced.

Inside Iran, the leadership vacuum left by Khamenei’s death has produced visible tensions between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the wounded Mojtaba Khamenei, and senior political figures. The regime has lost key commanders, much of its missile production capacity, and an estimated $300 billion in physical damage. Its regional proxies have also been degraded. Nevertheless, hard-liners appear convinced that Trump’s political vulnerability at home gives them time. They have refused to return to negotiations on American terms, demanding guarantees against future attacks.

The Trump administration continues to work through intermediaries, including Jared Kushner, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Vice President JD Vance. Senator Lindsey Graham, after speaking with Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, endorsed keeping and potentially expanding the blockade, calling it the best chance since 1979 to alter Iranian behavior. Graham warned that any nation assisting Iran’s oil trade “does so at your own peril.”

Complicating the picture further, Trump fired Navy Secretary John Phelan on Wednesday over his management of shipbuilding programs at a moment when naval forces are central to enforcing the blockade. The dismissal, reported alongside other unrelated controversies, adds to the sense of internal churn as the administration tries to balance military pressure with diplomatic outreach.

The fundamental incoherence that has marked American policy from the beginning remains unresolved. Trump launched a war to eliminate Iran’s leadership and nuclear threat without a public strategy for what would follow. Iran’s hard-liners, bloodied but still standing, have calculated that the economic blowback on American consumers and the president’s own impatience will eventually force concessions. For now, the strait remains closed, gas prices remain elevated, and the missile depots at home are emptier than they were two months ago. Whether Trump’s indefinite extension of the ceasefire represents strategic patience or simply a desire to change the subject is the question now shaping the next phase of a conflict that was supposed to be short.