US-Iran Tensions Drive Oil Shocks, Proxy Charges and Diplomatic Signals

The US-Iran war reached its 78th day on Friday with new indications that the Trump administration may be open to negotiations even as American and Israeli strikes continued to inflict heavy losses on Iranian cities and Lebanese border areas. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told a BRICS gathering that messages from Washington had expressed interest in renewed talks, though he noted a persistent deadlock over Tehran’s stockpile of enriched nuclear material. President Trump separately floated the idea of Iran suspending its civilian nuclear activities for two decades as part of any broader deal.

Iranian municipal authorities reported that US-Israeli attacks on the capital had produced at least 650 impact sites, killing more than 1,260 people and wounding 2,800 others. Roughly 51,000 homes and more than 10,700 vehicles were damaged in the strikes, according to the same figures. Araghchi said Tehran remained willing to accept mediation from any capable party, singling out China for particular appreciation.

In southern Lebanon, a fragile ceasefire with Israel was extended by 45 days beyond the original Sunday deadline after talks hosted in the United States. Lebanese officials welcomed the extension, yet Israeli forces carried out fresh strikes on towns and villages that killed at least 12 people, including three paramedics, local authorities said. The continued attacks have raised doubts about whether the truce can hold despite the formal extension.

In a separate development, President Trump announced that US and Nigerian forces had killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, described by the administration as the Islamic State’s second-in-command globally. The operation took place at a compound in the Lake Chad Basin, according to Nigeria’s presidential office, which confirmed that several of al-Minuki’s lieutenants were also eliminated. Trump posted on Truth Social that the mission was “meticulously planned” and had “greatly diminished” the group’s worldwide reach. Al-Minuki had been designated a specially designated global terrorist by the State Department in 2023.

US authorities also unsealed charges against Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, an Iraqi national accused of serving as a senior commander in the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah group. A criminal complaint filed in Manhattan federal court alleges al-Saadi’s involvement in at least 18 attacks and attempted attacks across the United States, Canada and Europe. The FBI said al-Saadi was arrested overseas and brought to the US; the charges claim the operations were intended to pressure Washington and Israel into halting military action against Iran.

The widening conflict has produced sharp shifts in global energy markets. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to most traffic, several Gulf producers have been forced to cut exports sharply, while countries able to reroute oil through pipelines or expand non-Gulf production have recorded windfall gains. US energy companies in particular have increased sales abroad at elevated prices, according to shipping and pricing data analyzed by S&P Global and Argus Media.

Iranian officials have repeatedly questioned whether Washington’s mixed signals—continued strikes alongside talk of negotiations—reflect genuine interest in diplomacy or simply an effort to extract concessions under pressure. Araghchi said trust remains the central obstacle. As the civilian death toll mounts in Tehran and southern Lebanon, both sides face mounting domestic and international pressure to determine whether the latest messages represent a genuine opening or another pause in an escalating confrontation.