Michigan Senate primary tests Democratic divide on electability

Michigan voters face a choice Tuesday that could reshape the Senate map and test whether progressive policies can prevail in a state that backed Donald Trump in 2024. The Democratic primary pits U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, backed by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and retiring Sen. Gary Peters, against Abdul El-Sayed, an epidemiologist who favors Medicare for All and has drawn support from Sen. Elizabeth Warren and the Working Families Party.

An Emerson poll of likely Democratic voters released this week showed El-Sayed leading Stevens 54 percent to 39 percent, with a 42-point advantage among those under 50 and a 27-point edge among independents. Voters over 60 favored Stevens by 14 points. The contest narrowed after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow withdrew in early July.

Outside groups have spent more than $40 million, according to AdImpact data cited in campaign reporting, with much of the money attacking El-Sayed. Stevens holds an A rating from End Citizens United and says most of her contributions come from small donors. El-Sayed has made the volume of outside spending a central campaign theme.

Black voters, roughly 20 percent of the Democratic primary electorate, have leaned toward Stevens in available surveys. At events in Detroit churches, Stevens highlighted her work on the auto industry rescue and connections to former President Barack Obama. El-Sayed has pointed to his prior service as Detroit’s health director and county health roles to build ties in those communities.

The race has featured sharp exchanges. Stevens criticized El-Sayed for remarks she said amounted to blaming Jewish Americans for his problems after he attacked AIPAC. El-Sayed later clarified a separate comment comparing a potential primary challenge to Sen. John Fetterman with putting “an ogre on a pike.” Stevens said she appreciated the clarification that the remark was not aimed at her.

Stevens has stressed her record of winning a Republican-leaning House district four times and argued that Republicans themselves view El-Sayed as the weaker general-election opponent. El-Sayed contends that only candidates willing to challenge the system can deliver major policy changes such as universal health care. Both candidates were born in Rochester Hills.