Democratic primaries show mixed progressive results amid polling misses

Voters in several Midwestern and Northeastern states delivered unexpected outcomes in Democratic primaries this week, complicating efforts by party leaders to settle on electable nominees for November. In Wisconsin, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated state Assembly member Francesca Hong by half a percentage point after late polls had shown Hong ahead by roughly 20 points. Similar overestimates occurred the prior week in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed won the Senate primary by one point despite surveys placing him far ahead.

The Wisconsin race featured rapid shifts in the final days. Two candidates dropped out after scandals, Crowley briefly exited then re-entered, and Democratic Gov. Tony Evers campaigned alongside him. Hong struggled to respond to attacks on her record, including a past social media post. Former Obama strategist David Axelrod noted that polls captured only a snapshot and missed late movement among undecided voters in the open primary. Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate suggested some Republican-leaning voters crossed over to oppose Hong.

In Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the Senate primary over Rep. Angie Craig. In Maine, Troy Jackson secured the Senate nomination after an earlier gubernatorial loss. These results occurred against a backdrop of prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket recording nearly $200 million in trading volume on midterm outcomes, according to an NBC News analysis. Election officials including Los Angeles County Registrar Dean Logan and Delaware County Director Jim Allen expressed concern that market odds could fuel public suspicion when results diverge from market expectations, citing the Los Angeles mayoral primary as an example.

No comparable details on Republican primaries or Trump-endorsed candidates appeared in the reviewed coverage. Prediction market operators did not respond to requests for comment on manipulation risks or accuracy comparisons with polls.