Trump's Approval Hits Record Lows on Economy and Iran

President Donald Trump's overall approval rating has fallen to the lowest level of his two terms, according to a new CNBC All-America Economic Survey, as public dissatisfaction with the ongoing conflict with Iran, surging gasoline prices and a sense of economic drift appear to be taking a measurable toll. The poll of 1,000 adults nationwide found 40 percent approve of Trump's job performance while 58 percent disapprove, producing a net approval rating of negative 18. That represents an 11-point swing from the previous quarter and the sharpest single decline since the depths of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

The drop comes at a delicate moment, with midterm elections less than seven months away and Republicans already expressing quiet anxiety about the president's wandering focus. Gas prices are up 27 percent from a year ago, according to AAA data, a direct consequence of the instability in the Strait of Hormuz where Iranian forces have seized vessels and both sides have imposed competing blockades. The conflict, which began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last year, has rapidly escalated beyond initial expectations, disrupting global energy markets and contributing to broader cost-of-living pressures.

What makes the numbers striking is where the erosion is occurring. While MAGA voters remain fiercely loyal at 96 percent approval, support among non-MAGA Republicans fell 19 points to 60 percent. Overall Republican net approval dropped 17 points to its lowest level since 2017. Independent voters also registered record lows. Micah Roberts, the Republican pollster for the survey, sought to downplay the shift, arguing that a five-point decline in overall approval during a period of war and inflation was not catastrophic. "He's keeping 60 percent of the Republican party very, very fired up," Roberts said, pointing to the intensity of the core base.

Yet the cracks appear to be spreading beyond traditional polling measures. Tucker Carlson, once one of Trump's most influential media allies, has publicly expressed regret over his earlier support, telling listeners he feels "tormented" by it. The Guardian reported this week that more than a third of Americans still believe Trump is doing a good job despite the chaos, a testament to the durability of his coalition. But the emergence of second thoughts from figures inside conservative media suggests the coalition may be more brittle than it appears when the economy falters.

The survey's economic findings are particularly troubling for a president who twice won office in large part on promises of prosperity. Negative views of the economy have hardened, with many Americans directly attributing rising prices at the pump to the Middle East conflict. Trump's recent public comments have done little to reassure them. He has described current gas prices as "not very high" and has spent long stretches of time on Truth Social discussing unrelated topics: a proposed triumphal arch, ballroom renovations at the White House, a UFC event, Bruce Springsteen's appearance, and even an AI-generated image of himself as Jesus. A since-deleted post attacking the new Pope Leo XIV as too political further illustrated the scattershot nature of his communications.

This lack of sustained focus on pocketbook issues is beginning to alarm some Republicans looking ahead to 2026. Mike Murphy, a veteran GOP strategist who has been critical of Trump, framed the problem clearly: the original bargain with voters was that Trump might be chaotic but he would deliver economically. That memory of pre-pandemic growth in his first term has sustained him, but current conditions are testing it. When the president does address inflation or costs, his rhetoric often clashes with the lived experience of families facing higher prices for fuel and groceries.

The Washington Examiner noted that Trump has long been more attuned to polling than his critics admit. The decision to confront Iran's nuclear program aligned with consistent public concern about Tehran. Multiple surveys over the past year have shown large majorities viewing Iran's nuclear ambitions as a serious threat and holding deeply unfavorable opinions of the regime. In that sense, the conflict was not a sudden departure but a continuation of signals Trump has received from his own voters.

Still, following the polls into war has produced consequences that those same polls are now reflecting back. The seizure of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli strikes in Lebanon that have killed civilians and journalists, and the broader regional spiral have created a feedback loop. Higher energy prices feed inflation anxiety, which in turn damages the president's standing on the very economic stewardship that once defined him.

For now, Trump retains the fervent support of his hardest-core followers, and the opposition remains divided. Yet the speed of the decline in his ratings, the specific hit among non-MAGA Republicans, and the growing sense that the White House is distracted from domestic economic management suggest a presidency at an inflection point. With six months until voters render judgment on the first half of his second term, the administration's ability to stabilize both the Middle East and the kitchen-table realities of American life will likely determine whether this dip becomes a deeper erosion or merely a wartime bump.

The CNBC survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Its findings align with other reporting that shows the Iran conflict moving from a perceived foreign policy success to a domestic political liability far faster than many in the president's circle anticipated. How Trump adjusts, whether by recommitting to visible economic priorities or doubling down on confrontation abroad, will shape not only his approval ratings but the prospects for his party in the coming elections.