Trump's Approval Hits Record Lows on Economy and Iran

President Donald Trump's approval ratings have sunk to their lowest levels of his two terms in office, according to a new CNBC All-America Economic Survey that points to widespread anger over his administration's escalating war with Iran, record-high gasoline prices and a cost-of-living crisis that shows little sign of easing. The poll of 1,000 Americans found just 40 percent approve of Trump's job performance, down five points from last quarter, while 58 percent disapprove, up six points. That produced a net approval rating of negative 18, the worst measured across both of his presidencies and the sharpest single-quarter decline since the depths of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

The numbers arrive at a precarious moment for Trump, with midterm elections less than seven months away and growing signs that the conflict he launched against Iran is spiraling beyond his control. Iranian forces have seized ships in the Strait of Hormuz as both sides impose competing blockades on one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints. The resulting disruption has helped drive U.S. gas prices 27 percent higher than a year ago, according to AAA data, even as the president has repeatedly insisted they are "not very high." Those price spikes are compounding broader economic anxiety that the survey shows is now dragging down Trump's standing not just with independents and Democrats but with segments of his own Republican coalition.

The erosion among Republicans stands out as particularly striking. The president's net approval within the party dropped 17 points to its lowest level since 2017. While self-described MAGA voters remain fiercely loyal at 96 percent approval, support among non-MAGA Republicans fell 19 points to 60 percent. The decline was driven by an eight-point drop in approval and a nine-point rise in disapproval. Even the president's once-impenetrable base is showing cracks. Tucker Carlson, the influential former Fox News host who long served as one of Trump's most prominent media champions, has publicly expressed regret, telling listeners he is "tormented" by his past cheerleading. Such admissions from high-profile voices on the right suggest the war's mounting costs are testing loyalties that once seemed unbreakable.

Republican strategists and operatives are growing increasingly alarmed. With control of Congress at stake in 2026, several GOP figures have told CNBC that Trump's recent rhetoric and social media activity show a dangerous lack of focus on the economy, the very issue that propelled him to victory in 2016 and 2024. In a four-day stretch earlier this month the president used his Truth Social platform to discuss a proposed triumphal arch, White House ballroom renovations, a UFC fight on the grounds, Bruce Springsteen's alleged plastic surgery and an AI-generated image of himself depicted as Jesus. He also launched an extended attack on Pope Leo XIV, urging the pontiff to "stop catering to the Radical Left." Conspicuously absent from long stretches of his messaging was any sustained discussion of inflation, wages or household budgets.

Critics within Republican circles say this represents a breach of the implicit bargain Trump struck with voters. "Trump's original deal with the American people was 'I'm a boorish lout and kind of embarrassing, but I know how to run the economy,'" said Mike Murphy, a longtime GOP strategist who has become a vocal Trump critic. "And they believed that because they remember the economy being good in 2016." That perception is fading fast. The CNBC survey registers deeply negative views of the economy overall, with high gas prices and broader inflation cited as the primary drivers of Trump's declining support. Public polling on the Iran conflict itself has also begun to shift. While early surveys showed broad concern about Iran's nuclear program and widespread negative views of the regime, the reality of protracted fighting, rising energy costs and reports of civilian casualties is producing buyer's remorse.

A Washington Examiner analysis sought to portray Trump as a president who "mostly follows the polls," noting that Iran has consistently ranked as a top foreign policy threat in surveys and that large majorities continue to view the country unfavorably. Yet even that piece acknowledged the current war's unpopularity risks outweighing any initial political benefit. The Guardian reported this week that more than a third of Americans still believe Trump is doing a good job despite the "global chaos he has unleashed," but it highlighted the same cracks in his coalition and warned that a cost-of-living crisis is intensifying for millions of working families already stretched thin.

Micah Roberts, the Republican pollster for the CNBC survey, sought to downplay the five-point drop, arguing that in such a "fraught time" with war, inflation and surging prices, Trump is still holding 60 percent of the broader Republican Party. He noted that the MAGA core remains "very, very fired up." But the data suggest that enthusiasm may not be enough. Net approval among independents and Democrats also reached record lows. The survey's margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

The implications for the coming midterm cycle are already rippling through Republican circles. Operatives worry that if gas prices remain elevated and the Iran conflict continues to dominate the news without a clear resolution, the president's unpopularity could drag down candidates in swing districts where economic concerns usually decide races. Trump's recent attempts to refocus on cost-of-living issues appear reactive rather than strategic, coming only after weeks in which his public attention seemed elsewhere.

For a president who has long boasted of his deal-making prowess and claimed credit for strong economic performance in his first term, the current numbers represent a stark reversal. What began as a war of choice framed in part around polling about Iran's nuclear threat has instead delivered the precise domestic backlash that conventional political wisdom would have predicted, even if Trump himself often defies such wisdom. As casualties mount abroad and household budgets strain at home, the president's once-dominant political position is showing genuine vulnerability for the first time in his second term. Whether that erosion hardens into lasting damage ahead of 2026 will depend on how quickly he can stabilize both the conflict in the Middle East and the economic pain it is inflicting on American families.