Tentative 60-Day US-Iran Ceasefire Awaits Trump Approval

President Donald Trump announced Saturday that a memorandum of understanding with Iran has been largely negotiated, with the potential to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease a months-long energy disruption. The strait, a critical passage for global oil shipments, has been closed since US and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran in late February.

Trump posted on Truth Social that final details were under discussion and would be announced shortly, following calls with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the talks as showing significant progress, particularly regarding the strait.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose government has mediated the discussions, said another round of negotiations could occur very soon. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar noted meaningful advances that offered grounds for optimism about a durable outcome. Pakistan's army chief has also played a central role in facilitating contacts.

The proposed framework reportedly centers on a 60-day ceasefire during which the strait would reopen without tolls. Iran would clear mines it placed in the waterway, while the US would lift its blockade of Iranian ports and ease some sanctions to allow limited oil sales. Iran would commit not to pursue nuclear weapons, though details on its existing enriched uranium stockpile would be addressed in later talks within 30 to 60 days. The US would also begin withdrawing forces from the region.

Iranian state media offered a more cautious picture. Fars News Agency, linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that management of the strait would remain under Iranian control, with decisions on routes, timing and permits staying exclusively with Tehran. The agency called Trump's description of an imminent final agreement inconsistent with the exchanged drafts.

Oil markets have already felt the effects of the closure. Spot prices for crude have risen sharply, contributing to higher US inflation and drawing down global stockpiles at record rates, according to the International Energy Agency. Coordinated releases from strategic reserves and some rerouting of shipments have provided temporary relief, yet analysts warn that further depletion risks sharp price spikes and reduced consumption.

Israeli officials are scheduled to review the developments in a security cabinet meeting. Past patterns suggest that any agreement will require verification on nuclear restrictions and shipping access, as prior diplomatic efforts with Iran have produced uneven results.

The economic stakes remain high for energy-dependent economies worldwide, where sustained high prices have already strained supply chains and household budgets.