Tentative 60-Day US-Iran Ceasefire Awaits Trump Approval

President Donald Trump announced Saturday that a memorandum of understanding with Iran has been largely negotiated, a step that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease the energy disruptions that have followed three months of fighting between the United States, Israel and Iran. The statement came after Trump spoke with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain, as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The proposed agreement would mark the first formal pause in hostilities that began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iranian targets. Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial traffic, cutting off a waterway that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. Spot prices for crude have risen sharply since the closure, and the International Energy Agency has warned that global inventories are being drawn down at an unsustainable rate. Several analysts now describe the risk of a sharper supply shock if stocks fall further.

According to reporting from multiple outlets that reviewed draft language, the memorandum would establish a 60-day ceasefire during which Iran would clear mines from the strait and allow ships to transit without paying tolls. In return, the United States would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports and ease certain sanctions to permit limited oil exports. Iran would also commit not to pursue nuclear weapons. Negotiations over Iran’s existing stockpile of enriched uranium would be deferred to a later phase, to be completed within 30 to 60 days.

Pakistani officials have played a visible mediating role. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the next round of talks could occur “very soon,” and Army Chief Syed Asim Munir has held separate meetings with U.S. and Iranian counterparts. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the progress as “significant,” though he offered few specifics beyond the possibility of movement on the strait itself.

Iranian reactions have been more guarded. The Fars news agency, which maintains close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that the latest draft leaves management of the strait under Iranian control, including the authority to set routes and issue permits. The agency described Trump’s characterization of an imminent final agreement as inconsistent with the text under discussion. Iranian officials have also indicated that any limits on the nuclear program remain subject to further bargaining and that Tehran expects the United States to withdraw forces from the region as part of a broader settlement.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to convene his security cabinet Sunday evening to review the reported terms. Israeli officials have not yet commented publicly on whether the proposed arrangement addresses their core concerns about Iranian nuclear capabilities and regional proxy networks.

The economic backdrop has added urgency to the diplomacy. Record releases from strategic petroleum reserves and some rerouting of Gulf production through pipelines have so far prevented a complete supply collapse. Yet continued depletion of commercial stocks could trigger the kind of demand destruction that produces deeper and more persistent damage to global growth. A workable reopening of the strait would not instantly reverse those pressures, but it would remove the most immediate source of uncertainty.

Even if the memorandum is finalized, several structural issues remain unresolved. The status of Iran’s uranium enrichment infrastructure, the future of U.S. sanctions beyond the initial waivers, and the role of Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon and elsewhere are all expected to be addressed only after the initial 60-day period. Those questions have historically proved difficult to settle even in periods of lower regional tension.

For now, the immediate test is whether the two sides can convert the reported draft into a signed document that each can present to domestic audiences as consistent with their stated red lines.