US-Iran Stalemate Reaches Day 62 with Blockade, Polls and No Breakthrough

As the U.S.-led conflict with Iran enters its 62nd day, President Donald Trump declared Wednesday that Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports is succeeding and urged Tehran to “just give up,” even as Iranian officials dismissed the pressure campaign as ineffective and global oil prices surged past $120 a barrel.

The remarks come at a delicate moment. A fragile ceasefire has held since April 8, but negotiations remain deadlocked over Tehran’s nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Competing blockades have disrupted energy shipments, sent American gasoline prices to four-year highs, and raised fears that the war could settle into a protracted “frozen conflict” of sporadic strikes and economic warfare rather than a clear resolution.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rejected Trump’s assessment, telling state media that no oil wells had “exploded” under the blockade and that Iran’s storage capacity had not been overwhelmed. He accused U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent of relying on “junk advice.” Iranian military officials said their restraint to date was intended to preserve space for diplomacy, while analysts tracking tanker movements noted that any forced production cuts would likely be gradual, with storage buffers possibly lasting only about 20 days at current output levels.

The economic pain is not confined to Iran. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry warned Tuesday against allowing the strategic waterway to become a permanent pressure point, citing risks of renewed violence and prolonged instability. Energy markets have reacted sharply to the uncertainty, amplifying costs for consumers worldwide at a time when the war’s original objectives remain unmet.

The conflict itself began on February 28 with a joint U.S.-Israeli surprise attack on Iranian targets. Trump formally notified Congress on March 2, triggering the 60-day clock under the 1973 War Powers Resolution. That deadline arrives Friday, forcing both the president and lawmakers to confront whether to seek explicit congressional authorization for continued hostilities or begin withdrawing U.S. forces. So far, Congress has shown little appetite for a formal declaration of war, leaving the administration to argue that targeted actions and the naval blockade fall short of requiring new approval.

A new Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll conducted April 23-26 suggests the American public has largely accepted the administration’s framing. Seventy-four percent of registered voters surveyed believe the United States is currently “winning” against Iran, while 52 percent support the recent airstrikes and 54 percent think Washington holds the advantage in negotiations. Trump highlighted the numbers on social media, using them to counter domestic critics who have compared the campaign to past Middle East quagmires.

Yet the poll stands in contrast to reporting from the ground and sober assessments from energy analysts. Iranian officials walked out of a FIFA Congress in Canada this week after claiming “inappropriate behaviour” by immigration authorities, underscoring the breadth of tensions. Meanwhile, analysts such as Muyu Xu of Kpler warn that forcing Iran to curtail exports will not produce an immediate capitulation but rather a slow economic bleed that harms oil-importing nations across Asia and Europe as much as it pressures Tehran.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Tuesday that the administration is still reviewing a new Iranian proposal but “will not be rushed into making a bad deal.” All military options remain on the table, she added, echoing Trump’s own statements that he could pause major operations while retaining the ability to conduct strikes at will.

For regional observers, this formula risks entrenching a dangerous new status quo. Federica Marsi reported for Al Jazeera that in the absence of a permanent agreement allowing both sides to declare victory, a low-intensity conflict punctuated by periodic airstrikes could become the default outcome. Such a scenario, she noted, prolongs regional instability, keeps oil markets volatile, and leaves Iran’s nuclear ambitions unresolved while ordinary Iranians endure the daily consequences of sanctions, power shortages, and fear of renewed bombardment.

President Vladimir Putin spoke with Trump in recent days, according to Iranian and Russian state media, though details of the conversation were not immediately released. Moscow has historically opposed U.S. military actions in the Gulf and maintains economic ties to Tehran.

As the War Powers clock expires, the choices in Washington are stark. Lawmakers could authorize the mission, attempt to repeal the authorization for past Iran-related operations, or do nothing and allow the legal debate to fade. Trump has signaled he has no intention of retreating. Iran, for its part, shows no sign of the collapse Washington once anticipated.

The result is a conflict that is neither hot enough to force decisive victory nor calm enough to permit genuine diplomacy. Global energy supplies remain at the mercy of two blockades, millions of civilians on both sides live with uncertainty, and the original dispute over Iran’s nuclear program appears further from resolution than before the bombs began falling. Whether this stalemate is viewed in Washington as victory depends largely on who is asked and which metrics they choose to believe.