US-Iran Ceasefire Frays at 100 Days With New Strikes, Oil Risks

The United States and Israel marked the 100th day of their war on Iran on Saturday with fresh exchanges of fire that have further undermined a fragile April ceasefire and intensified a worldwide energy crunch. US Central Command reported shooting down two Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Tehran to launch missiles toward US allies Bahrain and Kuwait in retaliation.

Iranian officials described the American strikes as flagrant violations of the truce agreed on April 8, while Gulf states condemned the Iranian response as an escalation that threatens regional stability. The back-and-forth has kept the vital oil shipping lane under pressure and pushed already volatile energy markets higher, with analysts warning of prolonged supply disruptions.

The conflict has expanded beyond Iran to include sustained Israeli operations in Lebanon, where strikes killed two Lebanese army officers and a soldier this week alone. More than 3,000 people have died in Lebanon since the wider fighting intensified, according to local authorities. A renewed ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon announced earlier this week has done little to halt the attacks, which Tehran views as direct breaches of the broader April agreement.

International reactions have been muted on the surface but reveal deep divisions. European allies avoided outright condemnation of the initial US-Israeli campaign yet refused to join military efforts and voiced opposition to any push for regime change in Tehran. Russia and China have both criticized the war as destabilizing, while Pakistan has stepped forward as a key mediator. Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi arrived in Tehran on Saturday for talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, part of ongoing indirect diplomacy aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and securing a lasting deal.

Gulf nations, despite their longstanding tensions with Iran, have found themselves caught between condemning Iranian missile strikes on their territory and managing the economic fallout from higher oil prices. Countries across Asia and Africa hit hardest by the price spikes have joined calls for an immediate diplomatic resolution rather than prolonged confrontation.

Former US defense secretary Leon Panetta, whose long career spans multiple administrations, has compared the current situation to past American quagmires, noting that the full economic consequences of the war have yet to hit consumers. Markets remain jittery, with forecasts of rough months ahead as supply chains adjust to restricted Gulf shipments.

The pattern of collapsing ceasefires extends beyond Iran. Efforts in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon have similarly faltered under the weight of repeated violations, leaving civilians to bear the heaviest costs through displacement, rising food insecurity and disrupted trade. UN agencies have warned that millions face worsening humanitarian conditions as a result of the combined conflicts.

Diplomatic channels remain open but progress is slow, with Pakistan's involvement offering one of the few active bridges between the parties. Whether these talks can prevent further deterioration depends on halting the cycle of strikes that have defined the first 100 days.