SCOTUS Clears Alabama Maps as Primaries Shape 2026 House Outlook

Voters and courts are reshaping the battlefield for the 2026 midterms, where control of the House could hinge on a handful of open seats and newly drawn districts. In Nebraska and West Virginia, Tuesday primaries tested candidate fields for an open Omaha-area House seat long viewed as competitive and for Senate nominations in both states. At the same time, the Supreme Court issued a 6-3 order vacating lower-court blocks on Alabama's 2023 congressional map, sending the case back for review under the recent Louisiana v. Callais precedent that limits race as the predominant factor in districting.

The Alabama order allows the state to proceed with its May 19 primaries under lines that create one majority-Black district instead of two, a change state officials say complies with equal-protection requirements. Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall described the result as enabling a 7-0 Republican map. Dissenting justices argued the timing risked voter confusion so close to voting. Lower courts retain authority on remand to assess whether the prior findings of intentional discrimination stand independent of Callais.

In Nebraska's 2nd District, Democrats John Cavanaugh and Denise Powell lead a crowded primary to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Don Bacon. The seat has supported Democratic presidential nominees in three of the last five elections. Republican Brinker Harding runs unopposed for the GOP nomination. Senate Republicans in Nebraska and West Virginia also face primary challengers, while independent Dan Osborn, backed by the state Democratic Party, prepares a signature drive for the November ballot. Fundraising totals show Osborn above $3.8 million and Sen. Pete Ricketts above $4.8 million.

Redistricting activity extends beyond Alabama. Florida enacted new lines expected to add Republican seats, and Tennessee and Louisiana moved to adjust maps after Callais. Virginia's Supreme Court blocked a voter-approved plan that analysts said could have favored Democrats. Projections from nonpartisan trackers place potential net Republican gains in the single digits to low teens from these mid-decade changes, though national polling averages continue to favor Democrats by roughly six points on the generic ballot.

The central tension remains whether legal and procedural shifts in map-drawing will offset voter sentiment in November 2026. States must still complete primaries and general-election preparations under the new or contested lines, with several Southern states suspending or rescheduling voting dates to accommodate the updates.