Google Engineer Charged With $1.2M Polymarket Insider Trades

A federal complaint filed in New York accuses Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo of using internal company information to place bets on the prediction platform Polymarket. The 36-year-old Italian national, who works from Switzerland, is alleged to have generated more than $1.2 million in profits between October and December 2025 through an account registered under the name AlphaRaccoon.

Court documents state that Spagnuolo accessed data tied to Google's annual Year in Search report, which ranks the most queried terms and individuals. He placed a series of wagers on outcomes that aligned with that nonpublic information. Early bets included small amounts on whether Kendrick Lamar would rank as the top-searched person and whether Pope Leo XIV would not. Later trades involved larger sums on figures such as Bianca Censori and Donald Trump, with positions taken after Spagnuolo reportedly reviewed updated internal figures.

Prosecutors from the Southern District of New York say the activity violated the Commodity Exchange Act along with statutes covering wire fraud and money laundering. The charges together carry a potential maximum penalty of 50 years in prison. Officials noted that Spagnuolo held a role as an information security engineer, giving him routine access to the confidential trends later used for trading.

The case centers on the distinction between public information and material obtained through employment. Prediction markets like Polymarket allow participants to wager on future events, including election results and cultural rankings. Federal authorities have long treated the use of nonpublic corporate data for financial advantage as a breach of fiduciary duty and a distortion of market integrity.

Spagnuolo's trades reportedly began with modest sums and scaled rapidly once he confirmed shifts in the Year in Search data. One sequence involved repeated checks on whether specific artists or public figures would appear in the top five rankings. The complaint lists individual positions ranging from a few hundred dollars to more than $900,000 on a single outcome.

Google has not issued a public statement on the matter. The company maintains internal policies restricting employees from trading on information gained through their positions. Spagnuolo remains employed by the firm according to available records, though his status could change as the legal process advances.

The Department of Justice emphasized that corporate insiders may not convert confidential business details into personal trading profits. Assistant U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton described the charges as consistent with longstanding prohibitions against such conduct in any regulated market. FBI officials added that the investigation focused on the misuse of access rather than the existence of the prediction platform itself.

Prediction markets operate on the premise that dispersed knowledge produces more accurate forecasts than centralized analysis. When participants exploit private data, the informational advantage shifts from collective insight to individual privilege. The current charges test how existing securities and commodities laws apply to these newer venues.

Spagnuolo faces arraignment in the coming weeks. No trial date has been set. The case will likely examine the scope of his employment agreements and the precise nature of the data accessed. Defense arguments may address whether the information qualified as material and nonpublic under federal definitions.

The episode illustrates the continued enforcement priority placed on protecting proprietary information even as financial instruments evolve. Regulators have signaled that platforms facilitating event contracts will not receive exemptions from rules against insider activity.