Google Engineer Charged With $1.2M Polymarket Insider Trades

Federal prosecutors in New York have charged a Google software engineer with using confidential company information to place millions of dollars in bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket, according to a criminal complaint unsealed this week. Michele Spagnuolo, a 36-year-old Italian national based in Switzerland, is accused of generating more than $1.2 million in profits by trading on internal Google data tied to the company's annual Year in Search report.

The Department of Justice alleges that Spagnuolo, who worked as an information security engineer at Google, created a Polymarket account under the username AlphaRaccoon in 2024. Between October and December 2025, he placed roughly $2.75 million in wagers on markets asking whether specific individuals would rank among the most-searched terms in Google's year-end summary. Court documents describe a series of bets that appear closely aligned with nonpublic trends Spagnuolo could access through his role, including early wagers on Kendrick Lamar and later, larger positions on figures such as Bianca Censori and Donald Trump.

The complaint outlines several specific trades. Spagnuolo reportedly bet $403 that Lamar would be the most-searched person, followed by larger positions against Pope Leo XIV appearing at the top of the list and in favor of artist D4vd ranking in the top five. He also placed nearly $938,000 against Censori being the most-searched individual and over $509,000 against Trump holding that position. Prosecutors say some bets were adjusted after Spagnuolo revisited internal data that had been updated since his previous access.

Spagnuolo faces charges under the Commodity Exchange Act as well as counts of wire fraud and money laundering. Those offenses carry a combined maximum penalty of 50 years in prison. In a statement, U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton emphasized that the case reflects long-standing prohibitions on corporate insiders profiting from nonpublic information, regardless of the trading venue. FBI officials noted that Spagnuolo had access to confidential search trend data that gave him an informational edge unavailable to other market participants.

The case highlights growing regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets, which have expanded rapidly in recent years as platforms like Polymarket attract larger volumes on elections, corporate events, and cultural outcomes. Unlike traditional securities exchanges, these markets operate in a regulatory gray area that has drawn attention from both the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and federal prosecutors. The charges against Spagnuolo test how existing insider trading frameworks apply when confidential corporate data is used to trade on decentralized platforms rather than conventional brokerage accounts.

Spagnuolo's position at Google gave him routine exposure to internal metrics that the company treats as proprietary. The Year in Search report, while eventually made public in summary form, draws on detailed trend data that remains sensitive during the period it is compiled. Prosecutors argue that using that information to inform bets on third-party platforms violates the same principles that bar employees from trading company stock ahead of major announcements.

The case is still at an early stage, with Spagnuolo presumed innocent unless proven guilty in court. It nevertheless underscores the challenges technology companies face in monitoring employee access to valuable internal data amid the proliferation of new financial instruments tied to information they generate. As prediction markets continue to draw institutional interest and larger capital flows, enforcement actions like this one may shape how both platforms and their users approach compliance with federal rules on material nonpublic information.