House Lags Senate on Prediction Market Trading Ban

Cover image from npr.org, which was analyzed for this article
Congress is considering a ban on prediction markets despite bipartisan interest. Lawmakers weigh risks and innovation in election and event betting platforms.
PoliticalOS
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 — Politics
The core unresolved issue is whether the House will align with the Senate by barring its members and staff from prediction market trading. Multiple documented cases of non-public information being used for profit have prompted bipartisan proposals, yet no House rule change has occurred. Readers should track whether ethics disclosure requirements are extended to event contracts or whether new legislation imposes criminal penalties.
What outlets missed
Neither outlet examined how prediction markets already operate under CFTC oversight with built-in compliance tools that platforms have used to block suspicious accounts. The articles also omitted any discussion of the markets' documented accuracy in forecasting election outcomes compared with traditional polls. Finally, both pieces left unaddressed the procedural differences between a Senate unanimous consent action and the House requirement for a recorded vote or rule change.
Lawmakers in both parties have identified a clear gap in congressional ethics rules that allows House members and staff to place bets on prediction markets using information unavailable to the public. The Senate already adopted a chamber-wide prohibition, yet the House has taken no equivalent step even as documented cases show government employees profiting from non-public data. A U.S. soldier was charged in April with using classified material to win more than $400,000 on a market tied to the removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, according to court records. A separate May report described a campaign staffer earning thousands by betting on internal polling results before they became public. Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y., introduced legislation last week to bar campaign staffers from such bets and joined a bipartisan letter urging House leadership to change chamber rules immediately. Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, offered a parallel proposal earlier this month. Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters the idea has support but requires further consensus building. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries expressed backing for swift action. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission already prohibits insider trading under existing law, yet lawmakers including former regulators argue that election and policy contracts require updated statutory language. House ethics rules currently require disclosure of stock, bond, and cryptocurrency holdings but contain no parallel requirement for event contracts. The House Oversight Committee has begun requesting information from platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, with Chairman James Comer indicating subpoenas remain possible. No bill has advanced beyond introduction despite more than a dozen proposals this year.
More in Politics

Trump Declares US-Iran Ceasefire Over After Hormuz Strikes
US forces struck over 80 Iranian targets after attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with missiles on US sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, prompting Trump to declare the ceasefire finished during the NATO summit.
Platner Rape Allegation Triggers Democratic Withdrawal Calls in Maine Senate Race
Democratic candidate Graham Platner faces rape and violence allegations from ex-girlfriends, triggering calls from Sanders, Warren and party leaders to exit the race. Democrats are scrambling for replacements ahead of the primary.
Trump Threatens Trade Cutoff with Spain at NATO Summit
Trump blasted NATO allies on spending, threatened to cut all US trade with Spain, and revived Greenland comments while attending the Ankara summit overshadowed by Iran. European leaders pushed back on US demands.

Trump Admin Ties Terrorism Grants to Paper Ballots and Voter Checks
Federal officials are conditioning anti-terrorism grants on states adopting paper ballots, citizenship verification and audits, with DOJ warnings of charges for noncitizen voting. Critics call the moves an overreach.
The Compass
You just read five takes on one story.
What's your take? Find your political shape in a few minutes.
Take the test